In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 — $735
Jackpot Super High 5 — $4,244
Late Pick 5 — $0

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RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

3-2-4-5

Of the eight runners in here, six of them exit the same race at this condition going one mile on December 21. #3 Flatbed Ford (3-1) ran the best race that day, coming from midpack to grab second in a much-improved effort from his first start at a mile. This is his first start around two turns, but he’s in ascending form, and there’s little about his recent races to suggest he can’t handle the extra distance. #2 Align (2-1) sat off the pace in that December 21 contest and held third. He’s likely to assume early control in this race, without much other quality speed, and could be hard to reel in if the pace is slow enough. #4 Buds Island (5-2) improved nearly 30 brisnet points to get fifth on December 21. His first race is a tossout; he was bothered badly at the start and trailed every step. He should rate near the pace and hang around for a share. Interestingly, two of my top three picks were bred by their trainers (Flatbed Ford by Hammy Smith; Buds Island by Brittany Russell).

RACE 2: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W3L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-7-1-3

#4 Win No Joke (4-1) got up to clear his non-winners of two condition two starts back, and may have beaten cheaper non-winners of three foes last out if Jean Briceno didn’t lose his whip. A repeat of either of those efforts likely wins this. #7 Banditsgoldenchild (3-1) is going in the opposite class direction as Win No Joke. He faced better for most of last year, and now gets to face the cheapest field of winners he’s ever seen. His only bad start within his last few came two starts ago, when he had a rough beginning. He’s also in ascending form and cannot be discounted. #1 Cybertime (5-1) has the most early speed in the field, and will likely be hard-sent from the rail.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE

8-1-6-2

#8 Estocada (3-1) was no match for the sharp gate-to-wire winner Can Do on debut, but made good ground in her own right and grabbed second, beating three horses with experience in the process. The only question mark is the distance, as she’s never been beyond six furlongs. #1 Chattolanee Spring (6-1) sharply improved to a 66 at second asking last out, gobbling up ground for third. There are some two-turn winners among her seven winning siblings. #6 Lyric Street (6-5) ran a solid second as the odds-on choice going a mile at Fair Grounds last out, and now makes her first local start and first appearance for Mike Trombetta. Her experience at longer distance could prove useful against these.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-1-3-2

#6 Suga Steve (4-5) looks as close to a sure thing as you’ll find. He’s run a 98, a 96, and an 86 in his last three starts. No one in here has run faster than an 84 at any point within their last three races. He should annihilate these, although you won’t get rich in the process. #1 Prado Road (7-2) makes his first start since June 28 for the Brittany Russell contingent. He has abundant early speed, and fought hard until the last sixteenth in his last try. His recent workouts have been very sharp, and he should be a major presence on the early pace. #3 Palm Island (8-1) tends to make a big middle move, then flatten out. That won’t do him much good from a win betting perspective, but he’s a good horse to key underneath, considering he’s likely to hang around for a minor share.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-3-4-1

#6 Not So Holy (5-2) ran a gigantic 99 in his maiden-breaking effort at Keeneland three starts back. While he hasn’t come close to replicating that figure, he has run well since then, including a third-lace effort in his local debut, where he flattened after an early duel. He finds a pretty soft field first off the claim by Daniel Mackenzie, and gets a tepid nod. #3 Box of Rockets (15-1) broke his maiden at tenth asking las tout with a sharp gate-to-wire performance. He’s the only one in the field who hasn’t lost against winners, and has some of the most potent speed as well. #1 Super Needy (12-1) got caught very wide at this level last out and faded, but ran a game second to Nancy Made My Day, who has since beaten much better, two starts ago. He can either gun for the lead from the rail or sit just off of Box of Rockets and pounce.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

6-4-11-1A

#6 Stop the Cap (10-1) has won three of her last five starts, including a game stalk-and-pounce effort against first-level rivals last out. Most of her rivals who are competitive with her figure-wise have terrible draws; and she’ll be able to save more ground while racing on or near the pace. #4 I’m a Cutie Pie (12-1) was very sharp in victory last out, beating conditioned claimers while running at least an 84 for the second consecutive race. She’s rounded into career-best form, and is likely to get the stalking trip she wants. #11 Dream Chaser (7-2) led almost the whole way against similar last out, and got reeled in by Oncourtcommentator, who returned to finish second in the Geisha Stakes last Saturday. She’s the most talented horse in the field, but she’ll have to be much, much the best to win from post position 12.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

8-7-4-2

#8 Kerness K (2-1) got a much-needed class drop to claiming rivals last out, and sat a great trip off a duel to win easily with a career-best 83. In fact, he’s one of two in here who has run in the 80s in each of their last three tries. He was taken out of that race by Brittany Russell, and now takes a slight step up in class. The only drawback is that he’s not likely to get as beautiful a setup as he did last time. #7 Shootersgottashoot (9-2) took his shot against stakes-quality rivals in the Heft Stakes last out, but faded badly after stalking the pace. He couldn’t make the lead two starts ago, either, and settled for third. However, he’s facing an easier field than he did that day, and has early pace figures too enough to get the lead if used aggressively enough by Jaime Lugo. #4 Slam Notion (6-1) was very sharp in his maiden-breaking score last out, coming from off a hot pace to win impressively. Like Kerness K, he might not get as good a setup, but he’s definitely trending in the right direction.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-RESTRICTED, 1 MILE

8-2-4-10

#8 Crossland (8-1) and #2 In the Dance (9-2) come out of the same race on December 13 in which they were badly pace-compromised. Secret Zipper set a loose lead that day, and no one had much of a shot of catching him. Crossland was second that day; he’s got the best late pace figures in the race, and will be hard to hold off with a better setup. In the Dance was third after a wide trip; he just missed at this level two starts ago with an impressive 92, and should save much more ground here. #4 Alvy (12-1) was completely flat last out at Penn National, but has worked very well since, and is a threat to upset if he runs his best race.

RACE 9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

2-7-1-4

#2 Big Earn (6-1) went off as the odds-on choice in a soft field first off a year-plus layoff last out. She showed speed and faded, but it was encouraging to see an effort like that off such a long respite, and she should run much better today with a race under her belt. #7 Ithinkiloveyou (2-1) battled a long way last out at Delaware Park and finished second while outfinishing her dueling partner by two lengths. She hasn’t run since that late June try, but gets to return in a fairly easy field for the sharp Cal Lynch barn. The board might tell the story on her. #1 Meg (8-1) also ran well in her first start off a 13-month break last out, improving 14 points to a career-best 74. Third-place finisher Somethingwonderful, whom Meg defeated by 4 1/2 lengths, broke her maiden at Charles Town last Saturday by four lengths.

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