A promising group of 14 Kentucky Derby hopefuls are set to compete in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Sunday. With 50 Derby points to the winner of the mile and one sixteenth route, a field of this size with no clear standout should be very contentious. 

A win here will all but ensure entry into the Run for the Roses, but if history is any indication, a lot can change between now and May. A slew of recent winners of the Rebel, including last year’s Timberlake, have bowed out of the Derby despite having adequate points to get in either due to injury or because of declining form. On the other hand, a decade ago American Pharoah followed his Rebel victory by capturing the Arkansas Derby and then winning the Triple Crown. 

Starting at the slight morning line favorite at 4/1 is Sandman, a Mark Casse-trained colt by Tapit who already has picked up 14 Derby points with qualifying finishes in three points races. Most recently he finished second in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes over this track, closing from well off a slower pace with returning jockey Cristian Torres after a troubled break. 

While he may not have a standout win yet in six career tries, Sandman has shown consistency and has drawn rave reviews from Casse following the Southwest. 

“I was just happy that he was fine. I’ve been doing this for a long time and watched a lot of horses run, good horses that could never overcome the break that he had to even hit the board. So, I think, one, hats off to Cristian. Not really sure how he stayed on and, two, he didn’t panic. He let the horse get himself together and the rest goes to Sandman. I said going in we’re going to find out whether he’s a man or a boy and I think he’s a man.” Casse also relayed to Oaklawn publicity.

Tiztastic appears to be his standout entry however, as he has shown steady improvement from the fall. Asmussen told Bloodhorse “I feel very good about (Tiztastic) as a horse who is going in the right direction at the right time. Weather this week and weekend is very concerning and hopefully everything will go off without a hitch.” Even if the track ends up a bit softer than expected, Tiztastic does have the advantage of being versatile from a surface perspective with two turf wins under his belt over the summer. Along with his stablemate Publisher and Kenneth McPeek’s Hypnus, he could be one to benefit if the main track ends up a bit softer as snow melts throughout the week. 

Coming in from the West Coast are Michael McCarthy’s Bullard and Bob Baffert’s Madaket Road. Bullard bested Madaket Road in the Grade 3 Bob Hope in November at Delmar, but most recently faded in the stretch in the San Vincente at Santa Anita. With both of those tries going seven furlongs, Bullard still has yet to prove that he can get the distance, a problem which also applies to his California counterpart. 

With his only win coming at six furlongs, Madaket Road was no match for his stablemate and Baffert’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis. He broke in his usual stalking position, only to come up empty in a small five-horse field. While the talent is there for these two, a change in running style may be necessary, with an adjustment to the distance appearing more feasible for Bullard who should be sitting a bit further off the pace in this spot. 

Rounding out the top contenders is Smoken Wicked from the barn of the always dangerous Dallas Stewart. Similar to Bullard and Madaket Road, this 8/1 morning line runner has done his best running at seven furlongs and shorter, currently sitting on a three-race win streak at sprint distances. After flashing some talent as a two year old at Saratoga, Smoken Wicked followed up a disappointing Champagne with three comfortable wins against lesser competition. Those victories could be a sign of improvement into his three-year-old season, as his recent speed figures compare well to this evenly-matched yet unspectacular field. In a race that appears to be up for grabs, Smoken Wicked is one to keep an eye on if he is able to get a desirable trip and has the stamina to hold on at this eight and a half furlong distance. 

While morning line favorite Sandman showed his potential after a difficult start to the Southwest, the Rebel is anyone’s race and should have honest early fractions with a group of runners who prefer to be on or near the lead. A quick pace likely favors Sandman, Bullard and Tiztastic, but a larger field of mostly inexperienced runners leaves plenty of possibilities for an unexpected finish. 

The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes will now be run on Sunday at Oaklawn due to weather and is the eleventh race with a post time of 6:23 PM EST.