Triple Crown: Fountain of Youth picks and analysis
Joseph Aiello- February 28, 2025
A group of eight enters the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes this Saturday at Gulfstream Park with 50 Derby points on the line. Leading into one of the top prep races in the Florida Derby, the Fountain of Youth has been a prestigious race in its own right with many of its winners going on to have productive three year old seasons.
While last year’s winner, Dornoch, skipped the Florida Derby, he went on to win the Belmont and Haskell and added to a long line of successful Fountain of Youth victors. Orb was the last Fountain of Youth winner to capture the blanket of roses in 2013, with the Gulfstream prep races continuing to be productive in setting up classic winners.
Will this year continue the trend?
Beginning as the 2/1 morning line favorite, River Thames will break from the six post with a familiar duo in jockey John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher. A convincing winner in both of his starts, this lightly raced colt has been impressive at Gulfstream and should be right with the leaders here.
The Saffie Joseph-trained Neoequos breaks to River Thames’s immediate outside. At 10/1, Neoequos certainly has plenty of speed, but stretches out to this 1 1/16-mile distance from his usual sprints where he has struggled to win against lesser competition. Maybe this is one who provides just enough pressure to put a crimp in the plans of River Thames, but Todd Pletcher’s colt should have an advantage here from a tactical perspective over this course.
Unlike his top three-year-old last year in Fierceness who needed time between races, Pletcher sees no issue in the quicker turnaround for this colt, who was unraced at two.
“This will be his third race in seven weeks with a step-up in class and in distance,” Pletcher told Gulfstream’s publicity team, “but he seemed to win his races pretty easy.”
If the turnaround and pace pressure for the lightly raced River Thames prove too much, the oncoming Sovereignty and Burnham Square are two improving runners with late kick who certainly have the talent to pick up the pieces in the stretch. Both winners of their most recent tries at the grade III level, these runners enter off of different timelines and beginnings, but have similar expectations.
Sovereignty began as a two-year-old at Saratoga this past summer with a top owner in Godolphin Stables and the Hall of Famer Bill Mott as his conditioner. After showing inexperience in his first start, this colt by Into Mischief showed improvement in his next two, narrowly missing in his next start before winning the Grade 3 Street Sense in October to pick up ten Derby points. Starting well off the lead with little pace to take aim at, he still ran away with that one by five lengths, besting two of the top choices in last week’s Rebel stakes in blowout fashion.
THE PICKS
1. #2 Sovereignty (3-1) – Late-running sort makes season bow
2. #6 River Thames (2-1) – Has made short work of rivals to date, tries deeper waters here
3. #3 Burnham Square (5-2) – Blinkers on sure have helped; back-to-back wins at the trip and over the strip
4. #1 Gate to Wire (6-1) – Has speed to be part of the early mix, and inside draw may force his hand
While he comes off the bench from that try, this could be the one to beat at 3/1 on the morning line if the pace is right and he improves.
From perhaps less heralded beginnings, Burnham Square started his career just one day prior to Sovereignty’s most recent race in October. Unable to win in maiden claiming company at 31/1, he was stepped up in class by his trainer Ian Wilkes into an open maiden at Churchill Downs. Like his debut, this colt by Liam’s Map broke slow, only to make a strong late charge in the stretch to lose by less than a length.
Finally in December, with blinkers added, he broke his maiden at Gulfstream by a whopping nine lengths with a better break, and followed that up with a sharp win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull a month ago. With both of those tries at this same distance, Burnham Square will look to make it three-for-three going a mile and one sixteenth over this track.
Trainer Ian Wilkes, for one, didn’t see this quick improvement for Burnham Square on the horizon when he started him in claiming company. “I wouldn’t have run him for $150,000. I would never have taken that shot. He’s just got better as I ran him. He got better and a little better,” Wilkes said. “I’m very happy with what he’s done, but if I told you I knew he was something good before I ran him, I’m lying.”
“He just was making mistakes in his races. He wouldn’t help the jockey. He wouldn’t go near horses, wouldn’t run into the dirt. He wouldn’t do anything until down the lane,” Wilkes added. “I put blinkers on, and they’ve helped him get a little more focus and they’ve helped him get into the race.”
The “other” Todd Pletcher is Gate to Wire who breaks from the inside post at 6/1 with Dylan Davis up. He, along with Dale Romans’ outside-breaking Keep It Easy, are the only others who have won in stakes company.
By Munnings, Gate to Wire began with high expectations as a turf sprinter, but was moved to dirt after a rough go in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last fall. His win in the Swale at seven furlongs last month in his first try on the main track showed major progression, with a returning speed figure that puts him right there with his stablemate. Adding distance is a question, but pulling away by five last time was the visually impressive effort that Pletcher needed to see to take a shot at two turns.
“Munnings seems to be getting horses that are running on all surfaces at different distances, and he has a lot of stamina on the bottom of his pedigree,” Pletcher said.
Keep It Easy was similarly impressive with a five and a quarter length margin of victory back in November, but has been inconsistent in four starts with no try past six and a half furlongs. A sharp break will be key for this colt, but he will likely be beaten to the punch by Neoequos, who can dictate at least the pace of this race.
With a strong duo of Pletcher runners as well as two worthy contenders to the likely favorite River Thames, this Fountain of Youth should shape up into a very contentious and important one going forward into the spring.
The Fountain of Youth is the thirteenth race on Gulfstream’s Saturday card with a post time of 5:44 PM EST.
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