Triple Crown: San Felipe Stakes picks and analysis
The Biz- March 1, 2025
This year’s Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes offers 50 Derby points to the winner and is run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt at Santa Anita. With just six entries, the field appears to once again be dominated by Bob Baffert, who conditions three of the runners, including the two favorites, and has captured five of the last 10 San Felipes.
Historically a strong prep race to the Santa Anita Derby, two San Felipe winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby over the last decade in Authentic and California Chrome. With the cessation of Baffert’s Churchill Downs ban this Derby season, a win from any of his entries here could have them primed to be a top West Coast contender in Kentucky come May.
The Baffert trio will get most of the shine here, but Michael McCarthy saddles the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity winner in Journalism who picked up ten Derby points in that try. From the two hole, this $825,000 Curlin colt has not raced since that December win, but has shown improvement in each of his three starts with no distance limitation. McCarthy was willing to supplement Journalism to get into the Los Alamitos for $7,500, knowing that his colt was in top form for the opportunity.
“It was either something like this or the San Vicente at seven furlongs (Jan. 4 at Santa Anita),” he said then. “We gave this horse every opportunity not to run today, but he had two wonderful works and he was very cool and composed in the paddock. He’s picking things up fast.’’
McCarthy is no stranger to tackling Baffert trainees with Journalism, as he finished ahead of two short-price Bafferts in Los Alamitos including one of his top three year olds in Gaming. With a good stalking style trip, this is the clear top contender at 7/2 to upset the short priced duo that will break to his outside.
THE PICKS
1. #2 Journalism (7-2) – McCarthy trainee impressed in Los Al Futurity, looks to make news of his own by upsetting Baffert battlion
2. #3 Barnes (1-1) – $3.2 million yearling looks to go 3-for-3
3. #4 Rodriguez (9-5) – No match for stablemate Citizen Bull in the Bob Lewis
4. #1 Mellencamp (6-1) – Baffert trainee still a maiden four starts in
In just two starts, the presumptive favorite Barnes has delivered the goods as he attempts to live up to his lofty $3.2 million yearling price tag. Winning narrowly in his debut, a more convincing romp in the Grade 2 San Vincente at seven furlongs should give Zedan Racing optimism that their investment will pay off in the long run. Clearly with this purchase, the expectations are sky-high with a Kentucky Derby win as the only acceptable result. With a step up in competition and some added distance here, this remains a wait and see race for Barnes and his trainer.
“It’s always a question mark,” Baffert said of the added distance. “I think he can do it, but you don’t really know until they do. We’ll find out a lot about him this weekend.” The upside is clearly there as this runner stretches out in distance and faces another strong, yet small field with a berth in the Derby in sight.
At slightly “longer” morning line odds of 9/5 compared to the even-money Barnes, Rodriguez will start to his immediate outside for Bob Baffert and picks up Flavian Prat in the irons. A gate to wire winner by seven lengths in just his second start, Rodriguez entered the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita a month ago and ended up with ten Derby points as the runner-up. That race appears to be a step back to his maiden victory in January, but he simply ran into a better horse in Citizen Bull upon stepping up in class. Rodriguez also strayed away from his normal strategy of going straight to the lead there, and should be vying for the top spot with Barnes based on the assessment of their trainer. “Pace makes the race. We’ll see how fast they go,” Baffert said. “The break will be so key. Rodriguez is very fast also.”
The final Baffert entry is Mellencamp, a 6/1 morning line inside post draw who obtains the services of Mike Smith this time around in the irons. Along with the two outside breaking longshots here, this one appears to be a bit below the top runners in terms of performances and speed figures with no wins in four starts. He also has a concerning trend of fading in every stretch run, but could be strong enough to round out the top four.
The San Felipe goes off at 6:43 PM EST as the eighth race on Santa Anita’s Saturday card.
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