The lone 50-point Derby prep race this weekend is the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Though this race is a cut below the top Derby preps, it’s produced its fair share of good horses over the years.

Two years back, Tapit Trice followed up his Tampa Derby victory with a Blue Grass win and later won the Monmouth Cup and Woodward at four. Chad Brown’s Domestic Product finished a distant thirteenth in the Kentucky Derby last year after his win at Tampa Bay Downs but later showed his talent when cutting back to one-turn races with wins in the Dwyer and H. Allen Jerkens. 

This year, Chad Brown returns with a promising young colt in Chancer McPatrick, who headlines this field at morning line odds ot 8/5 with his first start as a three year old. 

Starting his career at Saratoga, Chancer McPatrick won in his debut after a slow break and a last-to-first finish in a field of 10. This would be a sign of things to come as he hit the gate at the start in the Grade I Hopeful but made a similar late run to take down the odds-on favorite in the late stretch. A third troubled start in the Champagne was still not enough to derail Chancer McPatrick, as he once again passed them all and nabbed 10 Derby points in the process.

Brown will also send out Hill Road (4-1) for the first time. This one could be a prime contender to score the upset. With an even worse start than Chancer McPatrick in the Juvenile, Hill Road was able to close into third in his first start in North America. Like Chancer, this colt has been on the bench since that race and will also add blinkers in this spot. With just three starts, Hill Road’s potential is a bit of an unknown, but he wouldn’t have been transferred to Chad Brown’s barn if he didn’t have upside with a $350,000 yearling price tag. By Quality Road, it remains to be seen if he is best at this distance or if a late running style will need to be employed once again to get the 1 1/16-mile distance.

The outside-breaking Patch Adams (2-1) starts for Brad Cox. A 4/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn last time out, this colt disappointed with a fourth-place finish, albeit while taking a major step up in class there from a maiden victory. He began at such a short price due to the quality of his maiden win, a 10 ½-length romp at Churchill Downs in a sharp 1:20.77 for seven furlongs. 

The company he competed against in the Southwest compares favorably with this group, and Patch Adams did have a troubled start that day. A slight improvement from that try with a more forward break could leave him as the one to beat here. The main question for Patch Adams would be distance limitations, as he lost ground in the stretch at Oaklawn at this same distance. With a more modest pace in this race, this front-end stalker should be in the perfect spot to fend off a late run from the Chad Brown duo.

Last of the top contenders is Owen Almighty, a Brian Lynch-trained colt who keeps Irad Ortiz in the irons. Already with 15 Derby points after runner-up finishes in the Iroquois and the Sam F. Davis, Owen Almighty may just need a similar effort to nab enough points to start in the Run for the Roses. While he doesn’t have the top-flight performance that would make him a winner, familiarity with the track and a forward running style could put him in the mix down the stretch especially with modest fractions. 

Between Chad Brown’s duo who have yet to run at three and Brad Cox’s talented Patch Adams, this could end up being one of the more important Tampa Bay preps in its history as a points race. 

The Tampa Bay Derby goes off at 5:34 PM EST as the eleventh race at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday.