Triple Crown: Virginia Derby picks and analysis

For the first time, Colonial Downs will be a stop on the Kentucky Derby trail with this weekend’s Virginia Derby offering 50 points to the winner. The last 50-point prep race available, a group of ten three-year-olds will look to book their ticket to Churchill in seven weeks. 

Going nine furlongs, many of these runners are slowly gearing up with the hopes of stretching to the classic distance and will need to prove that they can handle the added ground in this spot. This race also has another twist: it’s a one-turn event despite the nine furlongs.

On the surface, the usual suspects headline this race in Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car and a pair of Brad Cox entries who have impressed in their first two tries. Cox will likely aim his top entry John Hancock towards the Louisiana Derby and opt to skip this prep after an impressive gate-to-wire win in the Sam F. Davis last month. That will leave the up-and-coming Rapture along with a slew of more experienced runners with the task of toppling Getaway Car.

On the surface, it appears as if Getaway Car is clearly above the others as the classiest runner with the best speed figures by a solid margin. Starting at 9/5 on the morning line from the six post, this colt by Curlin comes off of a hard-fought win in the Sunland Park Derby which netted him twenty Derby points. After setting a quick early pace in that try, Getaway Car was passed by Caldera in the stretch only to fight back and win by a nose at the wire. 

Previously, he had faltered in four straight graded tries, typically going for the early lead in every race. With his aggressive running style, holding on with added distance could be a question, especially if he is on a quicker early pace in this spot. 

Adding the assertive Irad Ortiz in the irons for the first time should lead to another forward trip, as Getaway Car figures to be in control early. Rapture may be able to apply some early pressure to Getaway Car, but doesn’t have the natural speed to be a major factor in the first half mile.

Even with distance questions, Getaway Car may just be better than the others, especially if Irad can slow the fractions down after the first quarter.

THE PICKS

THE PICKS

1. #6 Getaway Car (9-5) Might control throughout

2. #4 Omaha Omaha (10-1) Will be running at the end and could surprise if the pace heats up

3. #7 Rapture (5-1) Cox entered two, leaves this one in here; nothing but upside

4. #9 Render Judgment (12-1)Blinkers on for a barn that can spring an upset

Rapture enters at 5/1 on the morning line after just two starts and breaks to the direct outside of Getaway Car. Lacking the experience of others with just a maiden win, this could be a difficult step up in class for the Brad Cox trainee. He still impressed last time at Oaklawn with a 6 ½-length victory going a mile and one sixteenth, and unlike Getaway Car, distance shouldn’t be an issue. Brad Cox said prior to the Virginia Derby nominations that the more distance the better for Rapture, who will keep Flavien Prat in the irons and will be in a stalking position to Getaway Car.

A pair with plenty of experience – but some questions to answer – Virginia-bred Omaha Omaha and Maryland-bred Studlydoright, who break from the four and five posts, respectively. Starting with Omaha Omaha at 10/1, this Virginia bred runner trained by Michael Gorham has improved into his three-year-old season, picking up 11 Derby points with a second and third in the Jerome and Withers at Aqueduct. While those finishes against stakes company appear to put him a step below the top grouping, any scenario of torrid early fractions could benefit this late finisher. 

“That’s kind of his style. He doesn’t have a lot of natural speed, but once he gets going, he has that cruising speed and he makes up a lot of ground,” Gorham said. “He’s a big horse and has a long stride. So when he gets rolling, he gets going pretty good.” 

Gorham for one, likes what he is seeing from Omaha Omaha, who tries to keep the $500,000 Virginia Derby purse in his home state. 

To his outside, the most seasoned of this field is Maryland-bred Studlydoright, who began his two year old season with plenty of promise. Winning first time out at Laurel, this John Robb trainee won the Tremont at Saratoga, following that up with a valiant place in the Sanford and a difficult trip and finish in the Hopeful. Since a win in the Nashua in November, though, he has struggled this year; and Robb takes off the blinkers for this tilt. At 15/1 on the morning line, this one will need to return to his early form and improve to factor in and amass more Derby points.

Rounding out the contenders are a group which has mostly struggled with recent steps up into graded contests in D. Wayne Lukas’s American Promise, Mike Maker’s Calling Card, and Kenneth McPeek’s Render Judgment, who gets blinkers on. These three could benefit with the class drop, but still appear a tad overmatched if Getaway Car runs his best. 

Authentic Gallop conversely will step up from allowance/optional claiming company at 10/1 on the morning line, but has yet to run a race which rivals the top runner here. If Getaway Car can adjust to the distance against this uneven field, all signs point to a win for Bob Baffert in the first-ever Colonial Downs points race.

The Virginia Derby is the ninth race on Colonial’s Saturday card with a post time of 5:10 PM EDT.

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