Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks March 15, 2025 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks March 15, 2025

The Biz
March 15, 2025

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2025: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for Colonial Downs’s first-ever March meet, featuring the Virginia Derby, now a Kentucky Derby points race.

DATE/POST TIME: March 15, 2025/12:00 p.m.
RACES: 10
CARRYOVERS: None

RACE 1

A mile race starts the day with four Maryland-bred or -based fillies lined up to face a tough Kenneally ship-in.

2. Quantum Burst	Beyer Speed Figures are a quantum burst off the page, but I like the solid performances and early speed.
4. Luminous Secret	What we have seen out of Schoenthal’s filly so far is very likable; gets Carrasco aboard again.
5. Nick’s Notion	Bailes with a winner yesterday saw a solid performance out of his filly in her last start.

RACE 2

Two first-timers by Gun Runner are part of this six-horse Virginia restricted field of female sprinters.

1. Maerdama	Opting for a mature mare that ran well in her first start in some 18 months and prefers six furlongs.
5. Ann’s Girl	Bred by Larry Johnson in Virginia, North America’s all-time winningest trainer saddles a pricey first timer.
2. Divine Works	A slowly improving filly of Trombetta’s may be part of the challenge early on and has shown promise in the mornings.

RACE 3

Virginia-restricted claimers sprint six furlongs, including a pair of Beyer standouts for Klesaris who has a win in the meet.

3. Nola Boss	Russell’s colt broke her maiden at a fairly high level in a race where having more starts doesn’t really impress.
2. Ben’s Hero	If not for taking sixteen starts to get a win, I’d likely feel better about Klesaris’ five-year-old.
4. Medagooch	After his win, Bailes placed his four-year-old gelding in higher levels of racing and gets a subtle drop today.

RACE 4

Only two of these six three-year-old fillies have starts, all of them second place finishes.

2. Keepsake	Coming back to six furlongs might be what the doctor ordered for Cox’s Into Mischief maiden.
6. Belle Ofthe Wood	Ever wonder what hard charging Hard Spun would have done at Colonial? Might see a glimpse of it here.
5. Old Fashion Candy	Trombetta’s first timer has looked solid in the Fair Hill mornings, including a bullet four-furlong work.

RACE 5

A solid field of maidens going a mile includes Dettori, the horse, not the jockey.

7. Richard Feynman	Motion seems to have been doing well with foreign imports recently and his French starter fits that role.
1. Lion of Justice	Cox starts a first timer at Colonial, a June foal that was a $1.1 million purchase. Hard to ignore.
4. Dettori	Russell takes over on the East Coast for Baffert, who started this one three times in deep fields in Southern California

RACE 6

Of the eight maiden sprinters, half with starts and half without, two are sired by Kentucky Derby winners.

4. Verifire	Authentic colt was a $1 million 2yo and has A-plus connections in trainer Brad Cox and rider Flavien Prat
7. Suremeanttoobe	Trombetta’s colt may find himself on the lead for a very, very long time in this race.
2. Hitchcock	The most impressive performance from all the starters in the field comes from Eurton’s Quality Road colt.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Two more wins for jockey Paco Lopez give him six on the meet; that includes a win on Book’em Danno in the Boston
Wagering handle was just shy of $1.1 million for the eight-race program
Jockey Weston Hamilton also won a pair, including the Stellar Wind aboard Sheilahs Warcloud for trainer Justin Nixon
Reply, a $450,000 auction purchase for Repole Stable, made her career bow yesterday for trainer Brittany Russell a winning one, running down Passage East to win by a couple under Sheldon Russell

RACE 7

One of the deepest fields of the weekend is this group of ten of optional allowance milers.

5. Lure Him In	Coming off a January win at Tampa, Wilensky’s stakes contender had some nice works at Gulfstream including a bullet move Feb. 22 that was best of 115 at the distance
8. Two Eagles River	Maker’s five-year-old will finally return to the fast dirt where he last won, reuniting with Machado who delivered it.
4. Hay Chief	McMahon’s gelding has shown consistency, especially after finding the dirt coming off the Colonial turf last summer.

RACE 8

The $250,000 Virginia Oaks features two in for trainer Tom Amoss and an anticipated scratch of favored Gowell’s Delight.

4. Anonima	Proven over many at this distance, McPeek’s filly got caught wide in a deep field in the Honeybee, not the situation today.
5. Early On	Prat, who closed just too late in the sprint finale yesterday, gets the mount on a convincing winner of her last start.
8. Fondly	Motion, who dominates distaff racing on the Colonial turf, has a promising filly on dirt that could make the First Friday in May.

RACE 9

The Virginia Derby is a one-turn mile-and-an-eighth, a prep race anomaly, building a different road to the Kentucky Derby.

8. Authentic Gallop	Last and crowded among four across the track at the top of the stretch in his last start, Amoss’ colt made a nifty move to win.
6. Getaway Car	Prevailed in a lengthy duel in the Sunland Derby and comes into a race that seems to be Baffert’s niche.
7. Rapture	Cox was one to point to Virginia, and this runner returns Prat and won by a half-dozen last time out.

RACE 10

Won’t have to move the starting gate far for this nin- horse field to go a mile and a sixteenth starting with speed.

2. Passing Game	Will see a fast dirt track today, something Eurton’s gelding hasn’t seen in three career starts, all solid efforts, two on synthetic.
5. Protege	Veteran Good Magic horse ridden by Ortiz had shown some later career improvement, with his last win on the dirt.
6. Supreme Law	Can Ness’s gelding carry the recent mud momentum over to a fast surface? Rain comes later for the six-year-old, and a repeat of either of last two wins for fun.