Derby Trail: Where we stand after Virginia Derby

Saturday’s $500,000 Virginia Derby fetched a sellout crowd to New Kent and stamped a couple of tickets to Louisville, if the connections are so inclined.

Here’s what we learned.

American Promise looks legit

Prior to coming to New Kent, trainer D. Wayne Lukas had likened American Promise to a teenager: big, gangly, and uncoordinated. He had won only once in eight starts, and his two tries against winners – in the G3 Southwest and G2 Risen Star – had left a lot to be desired.

But Saturday he put it all together, pressing a swift pace and drawing away to win by almost eight lengths while earning a career-best Beyer speed figure of 95.

The 50 Kentucky Derby points he earned give him 55 and secure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, assuming his connections push forward and he stays sound. Lukas pretty much always pushes forward, so soundness will be the only question.

Nik Juarez and American Promise won the Virginia Derby. Photo by Coady Media.

Getaway Car, on the other hand…

Bob Baffert sent Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car to New Kent, one of a battalion of potential Derby starters in his powerful barn. Six Baffert trainees have at least 18 Derby points, placing them in the top 27 points earners to date.

Getaway Car finished fourth Saturday and now has 46 points. That’s likely enough to get to Louisville if Baffert and owners – there’s a bunch of them – want to do that.

But the way this race unfolded had to give them pause. Sent off the 4-5 favorite, Getaway Car made the early lead as predicted. But Nik Juarez steered American Promise forward to press the pace, and when the real running started, Getaway Car had no answers.

Passed with limited resistance on the turn, Getaway Car faded to finish fourth. He was 8 ¾ lengths behind the winner and one of four horses within a half-length of each other finishing third through sixth.

So, sure, Getaway Car has the points to get in the Run for the Roses. But you’d likely want to see a very different effort from yesterday’s before you actually took him there.

AS FOR EVERYBODY ELSE…

The order of finish Saturday:

  1. American Promise – see above
  2. Render Judgment – Got blinkers on and outran 21-1 odds, now has 29 Derby points, still hasn’t conclusively shown he’s this type of horse
  3. Omaha Omaha – Did his thing, rallying from last to be third while never a threat to the winner; now has 26 Derby points; yesterday’s speed-favoring track probably wasn’t to his best advantage, but his connections have a decision to make about a runner whose last couple tries have left him well behind the winners
  4. Getaway Car – see above
  5. Studlydoright – Now has 11 points and seems a cut below the top Derby contenders; not unlike Omaha Omaha, his connex have to decide if they want to take one last crack at earning sufficient Derby points or point to more manageable spots
  6. Rapture — Off as the second choice, the lightly raced Brad Cox trainee raced in mid-flight but had no answer in the lane; he still has plenty of upside but appears unlikely to develop fast enough to reach Louisville
  7. Authentic Gallop — Something of a wise-guy horse entering the Virginia Derby (it’s me: I’m ‘wise guy’), the Tom Amoss trainee was through early and eased through the lane

LOCAL UPDATE

Two Maryland-based horses competed Saturday, and both ran almost the exact same race.

Virginia-bred Omaha Omaha, trained by Mike Gorham for On Your Left Racing, and Maryland-bred Studlydoright, trained by John Robb for Mens Grille Racing, came down to New Kent from central Maryland.

They ran almost the entire race in each other’s hip pocket – heads apart after a half-mile, after three quarters, and after a mile – before Omaha Omaha inched a neck clear of his rival, finishing third to Studlydoright’s fifth.

That quarter-length was worth 10 additional Derby points, and Omaha Omaha now has 26 to Studlydoright’s 11.

LOOKING AHEAD

The 50-point Derby preps are done. Now we’re about to get serious.

Each of the next three weekends brings one or more 100-point preps, capped by April 5, on which there are four of ‘em: the UAE Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and the Blue Grass.

The Derby prep season concludes April 12 with the Lexington at Keeneland, which offers 20 points to the winner.

The 100-point races kick off next week with the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds.

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