Ten three-year-old colts will compete for one-hundred Derby points in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby Saturday at the Fair Grounds. Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen both bring a pair of runners with other top contenders from D. Wayne Lukas and Wayne Catalano. 

Asmussen, Cox, and Pletcher have all had success in this prep, each winning one of the last three. Historically, the Louisiana Derby hasn’t been the most successful prep race for those aiming at Churchill, but recent runners have fared better in the Run for the Roses even if they have performed their best following those efforts.

This year, the inside-breaking John Hancock will enter as a lukewarm morning line favorite at 7/2. With just two races under his belt for Brad Cox, the Sam F. Davis Stakes winner certainly faces a step up in competition here. But he has shown plenty of speed and keeps Flavien Prat, who has captured the last two Louisiana Derbies. With enough left in the tank in the Sam F. Davis despite setting an honest pace, this colt by Constitution should have no problem with the mile and three sixteenths distance here. That win ended up looking even better than it appeared at the time when Owen Almighty, the runner up, came back to steal the Tampa Bay Derby with a gate-to-wire win two weeks ago. John Hancock was able to fend off early pressure from Owen Almighty in the Sam F. Davis, going on to set a stakes record of 1:42.27 on a day where the track was running fast.

After an impressive win in the Gun Runner Stakes which gave him 10 Derby points, Built has come up short in the Lecomte and Risen Star both over this track. In both of those tries, he failed to grab the early lead, and may struggle to do so here if John Hancock gets away early. With how speed-favoring the Fair Grounds has been, a sharp break is paramount as this colt matches up once again with Chunk of Gold and Vassimo from the Risen Star. That race continues to be tough to analyze, following the stunning win by Steve Asmussen’s 43/1 Magnitude, who has since dropped off the Derby trail with an injury. Magnitude finished almost ten lengths ahead of Chunk of Gold who ran at the same odds, and Built who simply didn’t have enough left to close the gap in the stretch. These runners along with Todd Pletcher’s Vassimo all need to improve off of that effort to factor in here, but still compare favorably based on the speed figures returning from the Risen Star.

One of the more intriguing entries here is Caldera, the runner up in the Sunland Park Derby trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He has trended upwards in all four of his starts and was simply toppled in a stretch duel with Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car at Sunland last month. Getaway Car went off as the post time favorite in last week’s Virginia Derby, only to tire late after setting a sharp 45.20 half mile. Lukas, whose American Promise won the Virginia Derby, looks to continue his successful prep season with Caldera who has shown the ability to run well from multiple starting positions. At morning line odds of 5/1, this one offers value, especially if he takes another step forward from his Sunland Park photo finish.

Taking a shot here following disappointing finishes in Oaklawn Park’s Rebel Stakes are Steve Asmussen’s Tiztastic and Kenneth McPeek’s Hypnus, who enter at odds of 8/1 and 10/1 respectively. Hypnus may have struggled in that try upon a step up from maiden company in just his second start, but Tiztastic had kept top company with three graded tries before his Rebel only to come up empty in the stretch. Outside of improvement from either of these runners or a break-down of the early pace, this spot may be difficult for a win with others who have outperformed these runners shipping in from Arkansas.

In this evenly-matched field, it would be no surprise to see another unexpected result as these talented three year olds look to book their trip to Churchill Downs.

The Louisiana Derby is the twelfth race on the Fair Grounds Saturday card with a post time of 6:42 PM EDT, 5:42 Central.