Triple Crown: Jeff Ruby Steaks picks and analysis
A well stocked field of 13 – 12 plus an also-eligible – will compete in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park this Saturday as one-hundred points are on the line to the winner. Going nine furlongs on the all weather track, this prep has gained steam as a premiere tune up for the Kentucky Derby in recent years, highlighted by the performances of Rich Strike and Two Phil’s in 2022 and 2023.
While it is yet to be seen if one of these many entries will be running their best in two months, the morning line odds indicate that this could be a very contentious race as they aim to finish in the top two, all but guaranteeing a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Even in this larger field, five runners enter with morning line odds of under 10/1. The top two choices are Poster at 3/1 and California Burrito at 7/2, who have both won Derby points races prior to this effort.
Poster won the Remsen Stakes back in December. This colt by Munnings made a huge late move last time in the Sam F. Davis to go from tenth into third. He picks up jockey John Velazquez for trainer Eoin Harty and seems to be improving with each start. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, but with his late running style, having some pace to aim at could be beneficial over this all weather track. As one that began his career on turf, Poster’s trainer used the Remsen to gauge his comfort level on dirt, with the result proving that he has no issue on either surface.
“He’s got a dirt pedigree, and it wasn’t actually his first, well, it was his first run on dirt, but he trained on dirt prior to coming to me,” Harty told NYRA publicity. “Considering his pedigree, I know the family’s ins and outs, and I didn’t think he’d have a problem with it and I’m glad to be proven right.”
The adjustment to an all weather surface may be easier for Poster due to his turf background, but this one will be reliant on the early fractions to set up a late charge.
Perhaps fortunately for Poster, California Burrito has won his last two races on the early lead and should be aiming for a similar position this time. The fractions in both wins were on the slower side, however, with the Battaglia slowing to a near-fifty-second half mile. The presence of D. Wayne Lukas’s Innovator and Peter Eurton’s Charlie’s to Blame could heat the pace up a bit, but the majority in this field appear to be late finishers.
THE PICKS
THE PICKS
1. #6 Baby Max (5-1) – Might sit the right trip just off a runner he nearly beat last out
2. #9 Poster (3-1) – Remsen winner should be coming late
3. #3 California Burrito (7-2) – Morning line choice might control it up front
4. #2 Charlie’s to Blame (15-1) – Speedy sort controlled pace to win grassy Kitten’s Joy at GP last out
California Burrito’s trainer Thomas Drury Jr., has used a wait-and-see approach with his colt and believes he has the trip versatility here following his win in the Battaglia.
“His first race was sort of a head-scratcher,” Drury said to Turfway press. “We knew we’d be able to be aggressive with him entering for the $150,000 claiming tag because of that, and it actually gave him a confidence boost. Watching these 3-year-olds develop is like watching teenagers and trying to pick out which ones will make it to the NBA—it’s so difficult at this stage. His last race, he got an easy lead and did everything on his own, so we really didn’t know a lot about him. Tonight, he made the lead very easily again but the way he battled back against Baby Max told us a lot. He has a lot of fight in him. He doesn’t need the lead; he’s worked behind horses in the morning.”
If California Burrito does opt to go to the front again, he could control this race and make it difficult for the late finishers. For one, the third choice on the morning line, Maximum Promise (5/1) closed into a distant third in the Battaglia last time out, leaving far too much ground to make up in the stretch. This has been an issue for Kenneth McPeek’s colt in recent starts, which wasn’t amended with the addition of blinkers. He will need to improve and get some pace help to be a winner here.
Similarly, Brad Cox enters a 6/1 runner in Final Gambit who prefers to save ground and should be with Maximum Promise in the last pairing. Unlike his late-running counterpart, this colt has just three maiden starts under his belt, most recently winning over this track last month going a mile. He broke in that try dead last in a field of eleven, passing four runners in the stretch to win impressively by two and a quarter lengths. Maybe there is more room for improvement, but even in a field with plenty of questions, the step up from maiden company is a lot to ask for this improving three-year-old.
Perhaps the best entry from a running style perspective is Baby Max, the runner up to California Burrito in the Battaglia and the winner of Turfway’s Leonatus Stakes. With improvement in every start, this Kelsey Danner trainee stalked the lead in the Battaglia, only narrowly missing after a late stretch duel with California Burrito. With a bit more early pressure on the presumptive leader here, this looks like one that is trending in the right direction and shouldn’t have too much ground to cover like the other top contenders.
With a win or place here, these under-the-radar three year olds could find themselves among the best in their class in early May. Maybe none of these entries will end up like Rich Strike or even Two Phil’s, but as these colts quickly mature, there will be plenty in store as their racing careers unfold.
The Jeff Ruby goes off at 6:25 PM EST as the twelfth race on Turfway’s Saturday card.
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