Closing out the Oaklawn Park preps for this Kentucky Derby season is the 100-point Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Run at 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt, this year’s group of nine runners look to punch their ticket to Churchill with a win or place. The Arkansas Derby hasn’t been the most successful prep at producing Derby winners, but Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan prepped in this race last year, finishing second to Bob Baffert’s Muth. 

Baffert has had success in this one with five wins, most notably with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah a decade ago. He enters here with a surprising morning line favorite in the outside breaking Cornucopian (7-5), who has only one race under his belt. Baffert opted to send Rebel Stakes runner-up Madaket Road to the Florida Derby this weekend, paving the way for this $1.1 million three-year-old by Into Mischief – Magical World, by Distorted Humor. 

In Coal Battle’s Rebel victory, returning jockey Juan Vargas was able to position his colt off the pace early, taking advantage of quick early fractions set by Madaket Road. While a deep closing style appears to be his preference, Coal Battle was able to win gate-to-wire in the Smarty Jones by dictating a slower trip two back. 

Vargas said following the Rebel, “My plan was just to follow the leaders. At the three-eighths pole, I began to move and he just took off. He responded. I was so happy with that. I knew I had horse, but (Madaket Road) just kept running. Around the sixteenth pole, my horse started to put his neck in front and I knew I had more horse today and he ran well to the finish line. It’s the best race he’s ever run. The field was stronger than his previous races, for sure. There were some nice horses, horses that can run. He showed that he can run, too.” 

With continued improvement from that breakthrough effort, the once unheralded Coal Battle can position himself among the top Derby favorites, as he will likely make another late charge at a different Baffert pacesetter in Cornucopian. 

A surprising third choice on the morning line at 7/2, Coal Battle will have to contend with the 7/5 morning line favorite Cornucopian who won at first asking over this track last month. It is likely that John Velazquez will have Cornucopian on the lead from the break. 

While the outside post leaves him plenty of work to get to the front, only one other runner in this group has shown the consistent desire to grab the lead in his career in Ron Moquett’s Speed King. Appropriately named, Speed King won Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes in late January by breaking to the lead and never looking back. 

After showing that pace in his second and third starts following a slow break in his debut, Speed King off the pace in the Rebel and was uninvolved the entire way around. Returning jockey Rafael Bejarano will likely press this colt back to his preferred early position here, applying some early pressure to Cornucopian. With fellow longshot Bestfriend Rocket as the only other runner who has shown some early turn of foot, it could be Cornucopian and Speed King alone on the lead for the first half mile. 

This isn’t always a recipe for success as both runners still have to prove that they can win with this running style at nine furlongs. In the scenario of a pace duel that bothers Cornucopian and 15/1 Speed King, there are plenty of options along with Coal Battle that can pick up the pieces at fair prices.

Despite coming up short in all of his Derby points races including the Rebel, Mark Casse’s Sandman has flashed plenty of potential this year as a $1.2 million grey colt by Tapit. Starting at 3/1, this Rebel Stakes favorite broke slow but took advantage of a quick pace to pick up twelve lengths from his start to a third-place finish. After his slow break, Sandman was five wide entering the stretch, only to close strong and lose by a length. A jockey change from Christian Torres to Jose Ortiz may lead to a slightly different ride, as Jose guided Sandman in two of his first three starts. Although those races didn’t lead to wins, Mark Casse said Ortiz was high on Sandman early in his career and has worked him frequently, albeit at sprint distances. If the pace sets up for him here, there is no doubt that he is a top choice to make a late charge and add to his twenty-nine Derby points. 

Rounding out the top choices is the 6/1 Publisher, trained by Steve Asmussen. One that has steadily improved in six tries, this colt by American Pharoah still has never reached the winner’s circle despite finishing consistently. He stepped up into the Rebel Stakes last time and made a similar late move to Sandman, finishing behind him in fourth by three and three-quarter lengths. He may have just been passing tiring horses in that one, but still outperformed his stablemate, Tiztastic who came back to win the Louisiana Derby last weekend. There may be better deep closers in this field, but at this value he is certainly one to watch and needs to close into the top two or three to have a chance at reaching Churchill. 

The Arkansas Derby has a post time of 7:48 PM EST and is the thirteenth race on Oaklawn’s Saturday card.