Triple Crown: Florida Derby picks and analysis
Joseph Aiello- March 28, 2025
Historically one of the most successful prep races for the Kentucky Derby, the Grade I Florida Derby holds a field of ten this year, headlined by Bill Mott’s Fountain of Youth winner in Sovereignty (8/5).
Sovereignty, who will break from the far outside, dazzled in his three year old debut last time by making a sweeping late run at Todd Pletcher’s River Thames to win by a neck. This time, he will face a larger and more challenging field, with Bob Baffert’s Madaket Road likely setting the pace after his valiant effort in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes. If history is any indication, the results here could be the most important going forward to Kentucky in five weeks.
When breaking down the Florida Derby, it is difficult to mention any trainer before Todd Pletcher. While Pletcher doesn’t bring back River Thames from the Fountain of Youth, he enters Disruptor at 4/1 and looks to add to his already record eight Florida Derby wins, including the last two. This colt will be ridden again by Irad Ortiz Jr. for just his third start, most recently breaking his maiden by 9 ¼ lengths over this track.
After winning at seven furlongs last time, there will be an adjustment for this colt by Gun Runner, who should be sitting right off the leaders early. This is a clear step up in competition and class, but distance shouldn’t be an issue based on how he drew away from the field last time despite the quick half mile of 44.58 seconds. Talent obviously isn’t a question either as he went for $1.15 million as a yearling and returned strong speed figures from his lone win.
Still, at nine furlongs Disruptor will need to stalk the likely leaders Neoequos and Madaket Road while hoping the first half is much fairer than the pace he aimed at last time. A bit more seasoning may be necessary for this Pletcher trainee.
The presumptive favorite in this field is Sovereignty who already has 60 Derby points following his win in the Fountain of Youth. On paper, there should be a fair bit of pace here to enable him to unleash his best kick, especially if Neoequos, leaving from the rail, returns to his usual aggressive style and hooks up with Madaket Road on the lead.
That would benefit Sovereignty, who burst onto the scene in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill in October. After a dominant win in that one from last to first, Sovereignty was relegated to the bench until his first try as a three-year-old last time out. After answering questions as to whether or not he could repeat his Street Sense form, Sovereignty was then aimed at the Florida Derby by Bill Mott, who worked him last week at five furlongs, and once again this week at four over the Payson Park training track.
THE PICKS
1. #8 Madaket Road (7-2) – Stuck with it despite torrid early fractions at Oaklawn
2. #10 Sovereignty (8-5) – Late-running sort looks to build on solid Fountain of Youth score but gets new rider and must navigate outer post
3. #4 Disruptor (4-1) – Tested for class and distance here, but talent is no question
4. #7 Enterdadragon (30-1) – Bombs away! Makes only second main-track start but has plenty of experience on the lawn; could be running at the end
“It was very good. The time was good, and it looked like he did it the right way,” Mott told Gulfstream’s publicity office. “So far, we’re in good shape. It’s always day to day, but we’re happy with him. We’re crossing our fingers and hoping everything stays good.”
Regular rider Junior Alvarado has raved about Sovereignty after riding him in all four of his starts. Following the Fountain of Youth, Alvarado said, “I’m very excited for this horse. He’s showed a lot of talent, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. Even when he broke his maiden, he was still a big, playful guy. Big body on him, but mentally he was still a little babyish. He’s a very lightly raced horse. I’m in a good spot. I wouldn’t trade my horse for anyone.”
Unfortunately, after recently injuring his shoulder, he won’t have a choice and will give up the reins to Manny Franco for Saturday’s tilt. Mott is confident in the ability of both riders, winning some key races over the years with Franco in the irons.
Shipping over from Oaklawn is the second choice on the morning line, Madaket Road (7/2), who gave way to Coal Battle in the Rebel after a blistering early start. Despite the second-place finish, this colt was as impressive as the winner and should be in a better position here with more modest fractions.
Saffie Joseph’s Neoequos figures to press this Baffert trainee from the jump, but may not have the speed or stamina to tire him throughout the first half mile. Joseph noted that distance may still be an issue for Neoequos after his first two turn effort, as he faded into third after an early lead in the Fountain of Youth.
Madaket Road on the other hand, answered some distance limitation questions by handling a mile and one-sixteenth after setting a 45.72-second half mile. Even if he hasn’t won outside of his maiden try, keeping good company in four starts is a plus for this one, as he enters with thirty-one Derby points and in need of a good result here to qualify for Churchill.
Closing out the top contenders is Brad Cox’s Tappan Street (5/1), who has just two starts in his career, both over this track. Most notably finishing second in the Holy Bull, this colt doesn’t stand out quite as much as Disruptor in his two tries and breaks between the top two choices. A yearling price tag of $1 million is nothing to scoff at though, and there is still plenty of improvement for this green runner who will likely come from mid pack. Brad Cox has already had a strong Derby prep season, recently winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks with the 15/1 Final Gambit in impressive fashion. With his track record moving inexperienced three-year-olds up in class, it is impossible to ignore any Brad Cox entry in these preps, even if there appear to be better options at the moment.
The Florida Derby is slated to start at 6:42 PM EST as the fourteenth race on Gulfstream Park’s Saturday card.
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