The 100-point Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, delayed until Tuesday by severe storms, features a strong field of seven runners seeking the last big chunk of Kentucky Derby points available. This is the final chance for these talented three-year-olds who have flashed big potential through their young careers, but haven’t run their best in championship series preps. 

Outside of the 3/1 second choice Owen Almighty, who enters off of a Tampa Derby win and has 65 points, the other six likely will need to finish strong to keep their Derby hopes alive. 

Todd Pletcher’s River Thames begins as the 5/2 morning line favorite from post one, coming off a strong runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. River Thames will once again battle with Holy Bull winner Burnham Square, the beaten favorite in the Fountain of Youth, and faces new competition in Chad Brown’s Chancer McPatrick and Brendan Walsh’s East Avenue, who have yet to break through as three-year-olds. Even as the Blue Grass has failed to produce Derby winners this century, many have gone on to have great racing success, none more obvious than last year’s winner and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone.

Despite just three starts and no stakes wins, River Thames enters here as the morning line favorite and steals Irad Ortiz from Owen Almighty. After stalking the lead at Gulfstream last time, he poked his head in front at the top of the stretch, only to get nailed at the wire by the oncoming Sovereignty. Considering how well Sovereignty has run throughout the prep season with a respectable second in the Florida Derby, that race by River Thames keeps looking better and better by the day. Perhaps slowing down a bit in the last half-furlong, River Thames may have been showing his inexperience, and should be in better form with another race under his belt.

“He kind of got to looking around a little bit late. [Jockey] Johnny [Velazquez] said he was looking at the screen and just got a little bit complacent on the lead. He showed that he’s still maturing.” Todd Pletcher said afterwards. “We actually got a perfect trip, stalking the horse that we thought would show speed. We were able to put him away and it looked like he was maybe home, and I think he got a little complacent. The winner ran a very good race.”

As River Thames matures, the slightly more experienced East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick look to pick up their first wins as three-year-olds after impressive two-year-old campaigns. East Avenue begins as the co-second choice on the morning line at 3/1 for Brendan Walsh, entering off of two disappointing efforts following a Grade I Breeders’ Futurity win in October. The beaten favorite in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he most recently was no match for Magnitude in the Risen Star Stakes. East Avenue broke well in that spot at the Fair Grounds, but simply had nothing in the tank as the odds-on favorite. 

Similar to East Avenue, the 7/2 Chancer McPatrick started his racing career by picking up prestigious wins in the Grade I Hopeful and Grade I Champagne. As the second choice to East Avenue in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Chancer McPatrick made a late run, but to no avail and finished a distant sixth. He came back off a layoff to pick up second in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby to Owen Almighty. This is one that will need a quicker early pace to have winning chances. While he may not quite have the upside that was expected following his debut, Chancer McPatrick can’t be ignored with the connections of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat who have this colt on the cusp of Derby qualification with thirty-five points.

A bit of a later bloomer than the aforementioned East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick, Burnham Square broke his maiden in his third try this December. Entering the Holy Bull as a fourth choice, he went right by Tappan Street in the stretch to win in his first stakes try. With Tappan Street winning the Florida Derby last week, it is clear how strong that effort was by this Wilkes trainee. Unfortunately, Burnham Square didn’t have the same luck in the Fountain of Youth, mildly pressing into fourth after saving ground. Now with Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons, Burnham Square is hoping for a better trip and to be closer to RIver Thames this time around. Breaking from post three at 9/2, this colt could be great value after a tough last race, and needs a solid finish to add to his 30 Derby points. 

Owen Almighty appears to be the most consistent runner of this group, with the talent of River Thames putting him ahead on the morning line. The other three top contenders have all struggled in recent races, but have the talent to win if the race breaks their way. A pair of 20/1 longshots Render Judgement and Admiral Dennis enter with dangerous connections, but would need to take clear steps forward to be winners here. With many of these horses on the brink of reaching Churchill, this result will be vital to shaping the field of twenty in one month. 

Due to heavy rain in Lexington, The Blue Grass was postponed from April 5th to April 8th and goes off at 5:52 PM EDT as the tenth race on Keeneland’s Tuesday card.