Triple Crown: Lexington Stakes picks and analysis
Joseph Aiello- April 11, 2025
The Grade 3 Lexington offers a final chance for those who are looking to qualify for the Run for the Roses. Offering just 20 Derby points to the winner, this race is primarily for those who are right on the edge of the field of 20 or need a last tune up before the big test.
Unfortunately, these runners will likely remain on the outside looking in, as none of the runners enters with over 10 points. As an average of 40 typically is necessary to qualify for Churchill, these three-year-olds will be using this race as a tune up for future stakes tries such as the Preakness.
Headlining a field of nine going a mile and one sixteenth, Chad Brown’s Praetor will break from post seven here at odds of 2/1. With five other runners who start at single digits on the morning line, this group appears evenly matched, leaving this pricey colt plenty of work to do. Purchased for $725,000 as a yearling, Praetor began his racing career at Saratoga in August by breaking a step slow and finishing a distant third. After a gate-to-wire win in his follow up try at Aqueduct where he beat eventual Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty, Praetor won with a similar forward trip last month off the bench at Gulfstream. An impressive winner in that eight-furlong try by seven and a half lengths, this one appears ready for the step up in class and should be on the lead early.
With Praetor stepping up in class, the second choice on the morning line also makes his stakes debut after breaking maiden last time out. The 7/2 Gosger breaks to the inside of Praetor for Brendan Walsh and picks up the services of Irad Ortiz in the irons. Gosger also ships in from Gulfstream, and was able to drastically improve in his second try with a more forward trip. After bumping the gate in his debut, this colt stalked the lead at eight furlongs in February, comfortably holding off the favorite in the late stretch. With the presence of other aggressive colts here, this could be a difficult task off the bench and stepping up majorly in class.
Unlike the shortest entries on the morning line, Bullard (9/2) and Hypnus (6/1) both have experience in graded company. Trained by Michael McCarthy who conditions the likely Derby favorite Journalism, Bullard was a winner of the Grade III Bob Hope Stakes in his second try, making him the only graded winner in this field. That effort appears to be the best of any in this group, but was only run at seven furlongs.
THE PICKS
1. #8 Hypnus (6-1) – Battled top rivals in graded tries; that’s gotta help; gets blinkers on
2. #7 Praetor (2-1) – Arrives with back-to-back wins for top trainer
3. #3 Bullard (9-2) – Owns field’s lone graded victory
4. #5 Native Runner (15-1) – Lightbulb seemed to go on in latest
Returning jockey Umberto Rispoli believed that more distance would suit him however, telling Del Mar’s publicity office, “I just think he is a horse that deserves a bit more distance. Look he hacked, he moved, he gallops like a good horse, like a great horse. He is a horse who has shown us who he is only at his second start. He needs to figure out what is really going on with horse racing. Everything is about learning, for him, once he understands how this all really works, I think he is going to improve, improve and improve. I don’t think it was his best today.”
Bullard followed his Bob Hope with a distant third behind Barnes in the San Vicente at Santa Anita, simply leaving too much ground to be a factor. Having yet to run two turns, this colt needs to prove that his upside will translate at longer distances. Like Kenneth McPeek’s Hypnus, this is one that would prefer a pace duel between Praetor and Gosger to end up in the mix late.
Hypnus broke his maiden in his debut at Fair Grounds and was promptly placed on the Derby trail by McPeek with high expectations as a three-year-old. Unfortunately, he appeared to be outclassed in tries in the Rebel and Louisiana Derby, both ending in seventh and netting no points. Now with blinkers for the first time, this colt by Into Mischief should be a bit more involved in the early goings here and has a leg up on the others with his experience against the best in this division. McPeek also enters the up-and-coming Native Runner (15-1) who took a clear step forward in his most recent try, and is one of three who have a win at this distance.
The final top contenders are Fausto Gutierrez’s Rolando (6/1) and the outside breaking Touchy (8/1) from the Wesley Ward barn. Rolando should factor into the early pace, but hasn’t run his best past sprint distances. His most recent try over this track in the Lafayette ended with him tiring and fading into fourth by eleven lengths. With an extra furlong and a half to go here, new rider John Velazquez may need to adjust this colt’s running style to get the distance. Similarly, Touchy seems to have run his best going shorter, but has been consistent against better competition than Rolando, finishing a spot ahead of him last time in the Lafayette. Joel Rosario will have this colt finishing from mid pack, though he still would need a career best effort to be a winner here.
Post time for the Lexington Stakes is 5:16 PM EDT as the ninth race on Keeneland’s Saturday card.
LATEST NEWS
